CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-07-20T16:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-07-20T16:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17346/-1
CME Note: Eruption associated with a B5.4 flare from AR2846. Arrival is a very weak signature, no real shock, only a gentle rise in Btotal accompanied by Bx-Bz field rotation. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T06:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-22T21:11Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 971.0 km/s EAMv2 output: u_r = 1038.73 Acceleration: -2.55571 Duration in seconds: 188636.04 Duration in days: 2.1832875 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.56 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 556.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 22/07/2021 Time: 21:11 UTLead Time: 66.37 hour(s)
Difference: 57.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-07-22T12:00Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy